Analysis: 30 of 33 counties got more “Trumpy” 

This column is provided as opinion/commentary from the Pat Davis, Publisher, City Desk ABQ and the Sandoval Signpost. This post originally appeared in the nonprofit City Desk ABQ news outlet.
You can submit your own: editor@sandovalsignpost.com

Whether you are thrilled about last night’s results or terrified about what comes next, let’s start by agreeing on a few basic things: 1) Pollsters and pundits got it wrong (a lot) (again), 2) New Mexico’s political landscape looks more “Trumpy” than we all thought, and 3) big policy changes are coming and they’ll have an outsized impact on New Mexicans, so we’d better get ready.

New Mexico gets more “Trumpy”

With the caveat that there are a handful of provisional and other ballots still outstanding, 99.9% of New Mexico’s election results are in and that’s more than enough to do some topline comparisons with 2020’s results.

For months, we’ve followed polls and pundits who assured us that Kamala Harris would win the popular vote and had a real shot at winning a majority of 7 or so battleground states. They were all wrong. 

Here’s a great first read of the exit polls and results from The New Republic  this morning:

If you go carefully through the exit polls and compare them to 2020, you actually see a fair amount of stability. Even a little modest improvement in some places. In 2020, Trump won the white vote 58-41 percent. On Tuesday, he won it by less, 55-43. Among white women, Kamala Harris did a bit better than Joe Biden: Trump won white women 55-44 over Biden and 52-47 over Harris. The result among white men wasn’t statistically different: Trump won them 61-38 over Biden and 59-39 over Harris. For all the talk of defections among Black men, the exit polls say otherwise. Biden won them 79-19, and Harris carried them 78-20. She also won among independents, although by a few points less than Biden did.

Only one group of voters really stands out. Biden had won Latinos 65-32. Harris won them by only 53-45. And the biggest change of all is among Latino men: Biden won them 59-36, and this time, Trump beat Harris outright, 54-44.

For everyone, including me, who wondered why Donald Trump would waste time on a campaign stop in safely Democratic New Mexico, this was why. They saw something we all missed in Hispanic dissatisfaction, and especially among Hispanic men.

Thirty of 33 counties became more “Trumpy” in 2024 when compared to 2020 results. 

Put another way, 20 of 33 counties picked Trump over Harris though the Democratic population in our populous counties still dwarfs that of the smaller rural ones.

From elections to governing

We know that New Mexico is one of the most federally dependent states in the country and that means any big changes on federal policy will reverberate across New Mexico in outsized proportion. 

On the issue of energy, Trump’s promises to double down on oil and gas and repeal Biden-era green energy incentives are directly in conflict with New Mexico’s transition to a clean energy economy.

If JD Vance makes good on his plan to sell public lands to create more housing and revoke protection status for national monuments and sacred lands, many of New Mexico’s most precious public places could be in jeopardy. 

What will it mean for our labs and military neighbors if Trump as commander-in-chief, granted unchecked power by the Supreme Court, feels the urge to stretch his military muscle to settle global conflicts or, worse, start new ones? 

On immigration, his policies will almost certainly have an outsized impact on border and colonias communities across New Mexico’s southern counties. And what will cities like Albuquerque or Santa Fe, who both passed immigrant-friendly ordinances to protect residents from federal enforcement under the first Trump threats, do if he actually launches a large-scale roundup and deportation of immigrants this time around?

See what I mean? Buckle up for a wild ride. 

“Reporting as if democracy matters”

Jeff Radford, after a career reporting on international wars and emerging democracies for the Reuters newswire, retired to Corrales over 40 years ago and started a small but mighty paper, The Corrales Comment. Having reported on all those conflicts for all those years, he gave his new paper a mighty mission: “Reporting as if democracy matters.”

Democracy, it turns out, still matters and we just passed its latest test. 

Now democracy gives us a new one. As the founding fathers saw it, people elect our leaders then we rely on the press to hold them accountable.

But it’s not that simple anymore. It’s no secret that America’s newsrooms have been shrinking. Some have argued that the proliferation of self-published social media groups and platforms for fake news are just filling the gap left by the closing of our legitimate ones. I’d be hard pressed to disagree.

Last month’s state labor report showed that New Mexico has just 210 journalists statewide. Ten percent of them work in our newsrooms at Ctrl+P Publishing, the state’s biggest local news group, covering New Mexico politics, government and people for community papers owned and run by New Mexicans here at home. 

When you consider how many of the rest are covering day-to-day crime on local TV or writing food reviews and sports columns in your morning paper, there aren’t nearly enough good journalists left to cover all those policy issues and their local impact.

Think about it. There are just a couple of journalists statewide covering oil and gas and conservation. Even fewer who have ever written a story about immigration. And not a single New Mexico news outlet I know of has a reporter assigned to cover Congress and federal policy full-time. 

So I’m challenging readers to join us in doing something about it. 

Over the next few weeks, we’re looking at our coverage to see how we can help our readers understand how this seismic shift in politics changes their lives today and our lives as New Mexicans long term. 

If you work for a community nonprofit organization with members worried about what comes next or grant capacity to expand reporting, let’s talk. If you are a student looking for a meaningful career, we know some friends who can help. If you are a reader who cares about what happens next and can help us expand our coverage of politics and policy for these next four years, please chip in so we can expand our team to do just that. 

It’s a big goal to hire an experienced reporter with the policy and politics chops, but it’s an investment New Mexico can’t afford not to make. 

Whether you are thrilled about last night’s results or terrified about what comes next, as New Mexicans we’re in this together. Let’s help each other understand what it all means and build a future that works for everyone.